Saturday, November 14, 2009

Article Summary: $1160 is Gold's Next Target

For several reasons--to save you time of finding articles, to save time reading articles, and to save you from reading my opinions only--I've decided to start summarizing a few others' articles to give you a different angle on things. I will do this from time to time.

Daryl Guppy (5 Nov 2009) claims that the sudden rise in the gold price has been influence by the Indian Central Bank buying gold from the International Monetary Fund. He notes that many gold bugs seem to think gold will hit $2000. However, the four factors that influence the price of gold may not actually influence the price as much as gold bugs think it will.

1. Fear. Gold reached $1000 in March 2008 when the market was collapsing and then reached it again in September 2009 after the global market had recovered. This proves that fear is not as huge a factor as it may seem.

2. US Dollar Strength. The dollar began falling in March 2009, however gold also fell from $1000 to $850 at the same time; and then it rose back over $1000. Not much of a correlation.

3. Central Banks. The Indian buying pushed gold to its current all time high. However, transfering the gold from the IMF to central banks doesn't affect supply and demand, therefor any affect on the gold price will be short-lived.

4. Jewelry. Indians only buy gold around holidays. Also, jewelry demand is only steadily increasing worldwide, as it always has. This increase is not enough to affect gold's sudden jumps and retreats.

Guppy (2009) next states that gold has reached it's first plateau of $1080. Next it will be $1160, and then $1240. However, he also says that if China announces that they won't start buying from the IMF, gold could retreat to $1000; but if they announce they will start buying, gold could hit $1160.

Guppy states that the way money is made in the gold market deals with "suppliers of pick sand shovels, or steel for the mine pit heads and food for the miners that go on to build solid and sustainable businesses" and that profits would be in mining companies.

Guppy, Daryl (5 Nov 2009). $1160 is Gold's Next Target Level: Charts. CNBC.

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