Tuesday, April 19, 2011

How Metals Have Faired Over the Past 5 Years

Times have been turbulent for most of the metals. I've made personal charts with pen and paper to figure out the percentage gains of each metal versus the other metals, etc. I did this because a) I don't have a chart-making program on my computer and b) the online ones don't give me what I want to know. Let's take a quick look at some of the things that have been happening.

Gold Is Rising

To start with, gold has proven to be a great investment over the past 5 years (it's been good for longer than 5 years but I use PGMs as a medium-term investment vehicle). As you can see, if you would have sold in early 2008 for cash and rebought it late that same year, you would have increased your holdings by about 25%. From that low point of under $800 in 2008 until today, gold has nearly doubled.

Gold is too slow, steady, and boring for me. It will continue to keep up with inflation If you want to buy gold I'd wait, as it's now at its all time highest price.

Silver Rose A Lot, May Rise More, But Will Definitely Fall

Silver, like gold, has proven to be a good investment. If you did the same as gold--sell in spring 2008 and buy back in the fall--you would have increased your holdings by 100%. And, due to luck, perhaps, if you ended up buying in late 2008 and holding until today, you would have increased your holdings by 400%.

I always try to give a little advice when I can. Although no one knows what will happen, this is what I predict: silver might hit $50, but I think its run is coming to an end. Conclusion: sell your silver now!

Platinum Did Better a Few Years Ago

I don't mind bragging a bit saying that I sold some Platinum when it was at its peak back in 2008. I will however, admit that I wish I had bought it back at the end 2008. I would have realized over 100% gains!

Unlike gold and silver, though, today, platinum is still 20% below its 2008 high. I feel something has got to happen here. Gold can't remain at $1500 if platinum is only $1800. Will gold fall? Will platinum jump to $2400? Look where silver is, with it's 400% gain. It's odd silver is on such a run and platinum has held steady. It will be one of the scenarios I mentioned, but I don't know which. If I had to buy or sell I'd flip a coin because it's not high enough to realize gains or low enough to know that it'll go higher anytime soon.

Our Good Friend Palladium Shines!

I haven't been posting much but I have been sitting around watching the palladium I bought when it was $200 an ounce climb 400% to over $800! Again, yes, I'll brag, but c'mon, it was obvious palladium wasn't going to stay at $200 an ounce for long. Palladium fell further than the other metals, and kept falling after they stopped. It's risen as much as silver has, but silver did it all at once, Palladium took two years.

The advice regarding palladium I've given has always been sound. You would have always made money if you bought or sold based on my suggestions (and I'd like to keep the record going that's why I don't post too many suggestions anymore). Prediction: palladium will fall considerably, probably in 2011. If you sell palladium now, I'm guessing you'll be able to buy it cheaper within the next 6 months. I'm hoping it hits $900 or so, though, before I do sell.

Rhodium, Rhodium, Where Art Thou?

Rhodium, like platinum, had a huge 120% jump from 2006 to 2008. That was when you couldn't buy rhodium anywhere. I have my Cohen Bullion now and have investing in some pools (like stocks), but I wish we had these things back in the olden days of 2008! $10,000 an ounce wasn't significant when dealing in percentages. Looking at the chart it looks huge but now that I have my own charts I realize a few things:
  • If you bought rhodium in 2006 and sold in mid-2008 you would have doubled your money
  • Rhodium was the best investment from 2006 to 2008, followed very closely by platinum
  • Rhodium would have by far been the worst investment today if you had bought in early/mid-2008.
  • Over the past 5 years (if you bought in 2006 and are still holding) rhodium would have proven to be the worst investment. Silver would have been the winner, gold second, palladium third, then platinum and rhodium

So, that's what's happened over the past 5 years. As always, any metal would have made you a fortune if you either got lucky or timed the market correctly. What does that mean? I think it means that the worst performer, rhodium, might be looking for it's time to shine! I would never buy palladium or silver right now. I would buy gold but not at $1500, maybe after it drops I would. And I'm unsure of what platinum will do. Rhodium. I will buy rhodium. In fact, as you can see by reading my posts, I already have!


  1. I enjoyed your post. thank you for sharing your thoughts and time........

  2. Hey, thanks. I appreciate the comment. Had you sold your silver a year ago when I wrote the article you would have saved yourself quite a bit of value loss!


WAIT! Thanks for reading, but you're not done yet! This site has nearly 50 FREE ARTICLES regarding how, why, and where to buy palladium online. To see these simply see the "Blog Archive" atop the right hand column. Here are two favorites: Inflation Adjusted Charts and Fail-Proof Wealth Plan.